Reflections on the World Ocean Summit: a scientist in the melee
The 2014 World Ocean Summit was held last week at the chic Ritz-Carlton in Half Moon Bay, California. Together, global leaders discussed the current international dimensions of the global blue economy. The Switzer Environmental Network, namely Jessica Switzer and the folks at Blue Practice, provided the basically-unparalleled opportunity to attend the Ocean Summit. In the midst of these suited and articulate political leaders, industry representatives, and ocean-oriented non-governmental organizations, I found myself.
Much of the language at the Summit openly acknowledged how stressed and deteriorated ocean resources are, with multiple references to over-fishing, coastal eutrophication and dead zones. The plight of ocean ecosystems was also framed as an impending human and economic crisis, due the importance of marine protein and coastal fishing economies. The discussion focused around natural capital, the valuation of ecosystem services, and the potential pathways for political management of the global blue economy on national and international levels. All good things, right! All ideas rooted in the reality that our social and economic health is dependent upon thriving ecosystems and intact natural resources.
In the midst of this international, politically-progressive, solution-oriented conversation, I found myself crestfallen. A new awareness slowly dawned on me: the vast majority of the conversation at the Ocean Summit was woefully disconnected from the scientific reality of our time.
Now, I’d like to state outright that I am not a “tree-hugger”, in a classical sense. For example, I also was wearing a suit at the Ocean Summit. I come from a construction and engineering family that has succeeded in the (relatively) free and frontier marketplace of the Pacific Northwest. I value the monetary importance of natural resources; it’s hard not to when growing up next to timber, hydroelectric, and fishing industries.
But, I am also an ocean and climate scientist, and I’ve been trained to think about the impending, climate-forced changes to our one global ocean. We are heading towards a world that is incomprehensibly different than the world of our parents. The world of 400 ppm atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and soon to be 500 ppm, is not a world that can be managed or conserved with twentieth century ideas. We are headed for a non-analogue future: one where the ocean is vastly warmer, more acidic and depleted of oxygen. What does this ocean look like? It looks like an ice-free Arctic Sea. Or, it looks like massive seafloor die-offs due to oxygen loss. The catastrophic failure of aquaculture. Or algal and bacterial reefs. Jelly fish. Harmful algal blooms. Scum.
Mostly, ocean and climate scientists will tell you, over a beer and away from the glare of the media, that we don’t actually know how ecosystems will function in the future. This is because the changes being wrought to ocean systems are unprecedented; the only analogous atmospheric carbon events come from the geologic record. It is very difficult to replicate these conditions accurately in the laboratory, and then even more difficult to extrapolate to ecosystem-scale functions.
Ultimately, what I wanted to say at the ocean summit was this: Our problems are not about habitat degradation, sustainable fisheries and high seas management. Our problem is that we are changing the heat budget of the Earth, and the balance of gas exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. We are changing the PLANET.
The dignified and cosmopolitan exchange that was the Global Ocean Summit may bring about significant progress in international consensus, industry buy in, and the furtherance of conservation goals. But somewhere in the melee of goodwill and partnership, a strong and bitter dose of climate reality was needed. Ultimately, it is another manifestation of the failure of the scientific community to communicate the urgency of the climate threat. My community, our community: we need to do better so that we can start solving 21st century problems.
